Cold War Over

Cold War Over

The Cold War went on for, oh, 75 years, give or take. Now it’s over. How did this miracle happen? Trump brought Putin to the negotiating table—he used diplomacy. He achieved this feat by not criticizing Putin. Yes, there were territorial concessions: Trump gave him Ukraine and any other chunk of Europe he took a fancy to (Cuba too). But the war had to end; it had gone on too long; there had to be peace. And what did Trump get in return? No territory, to be sure, or security guarantees, but lots of…lots of what? Oh yes, lots of flattery—false flattery but flattery nonetheless. He made a deal with the dictator—and he is a great dealmaker. It’s an artform with him. He gave Putin lots of land and he got lots of flattery in return—a pretty good deal, no? As a result, the Cold War is over, and Trump was victorious. All hail President Trump! He showed Putin (and the world) who is boss, bigly.

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Future of Philosophy

Future of Philosophy

The future of philosophy in America looks dismal. I am not going to sugar-coat it. The root cause is job scarcity—a matter of supply and demand. There are very few jobs for too many people and it’s not going to change any time soon (probably never). Not many new people can get into the field. The result is that fewer people even try to. It just makes no prudential sense. A brilliant person with employment options will not risk a lengthy education in philosophy—he or she will go into law or tech or show business or journalism or physics. Thus, mediocrity is the likely outcome: lower quality and less quantity. Mediocrity breeds mediocrity. Mediocre teachers, mediocre researchers, mediocre writers—a general lack of spark. This mediocrity will put off brilliant people more. The public image of philosophy will suffer; it will be seen (correctly) as a sleepy dull field. No more articles about philosophy in intellectual publications. This process is already well underway: the intellectual level of the subject has dropped significantly during my time in it. At present some good people are still toiling in the vineyard, but they are old, past their prime, and ready for retirement. No one of comparable quality is there to replace them. Imagine the level in ten or twenty years from now! I also think there has been a noticeable decline in the moral quality of people in the profession—a lack of integrity, decency, courage. The field is full of cowards and moral fools (I told you I wouldn’t hold back). And morality and intellect go together. I won’t name names but I have been startled by the stupidity and spinelessness of younger members of the profession. Instead of creativity there is careerism. Academic politics has replaced hard work and inspiration. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years philosophy in the universities has become largely history of philosophy, or else intolerably pedestrian. The subject is just not what it was in the old days—up till about the turn of the century. But my point is that this will only get worse because of the job problem. No doubt other factors are at work such as a decline of intellectual standards, the forces of conformity, the lack of real literacy, the sheer brainlessness of culture at large. People are just not interesting anymore, not worth knowing. Dim, dull, depressing. Do I care? Not really—I’m no longer part of it.

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Consequences

Consequences

Is it too much of an exaggeration to say that last Friday’s berating and insulting of the prime minister of Ukraine by the president and vice-president of the United States marked the end of the Cold War? The USA and Russia are no longer at loggerheads, no longer foes, but rather in harmony with respect to global affairs. This is not because Russia has changed—we have. I want to trace out the likely consequences of this new alignment, this ideological chumminess. First, Cuba (near where I live): what is to stop Russia from invading that island, taking it over, installing troops there? Nothing, as far as I can see. Would the US government take a firm stand against this? Apparently not. They would recommend a “deal” between Cuba and Russia, i.e., territorial concessions. Cuba could become a Russian outpost, with Russian the official language. In the case of Europe, we already see a fundamental restructuring, as European states seek to develop independence from American protection. They can no longer rely on American deterrence of Russian (or other) aggression—they will need to militarize. The issue of nuclear arms will come to the forefront. No longer will America’s nuclear capability prevent the Russian deployment of nuclear weapons. NATO has been decimated and is likely to have to survive without American membership. It is not clear in the short term whether Europe alone can deter Russian depredations. The end of the Cold War might well be the beginning of a Hot War in Europe. If Putin had waited a few years before invading Ukraine, he would have encountered little to no resistance from the American government under Trump; Ukraine would already be a Russian satellite. Without the transatlantic alliance to fall back on the European states are vulnerable to Russian expansionism. At the least there will be political tension, saber-rattling, incursions of one kind or another. Think of Chechnya. Further afield, Taiwan: it’s hard to believe that China will not be emboldened to make a move on Taiwan. Do you think Trump would do much about that? America first, remember. Will North Korea continue its nuclear build-up? You bet.

It is fairly obvious that this loss of traditional alliances will be accompanied by new alliances. America-Russia-North Korea: ARNK. It’s already happening. America will become more of a dictatorship, so naturally aligned with other dictatorships. The rift with Canada will deepen: a trade war is still a war. Talk of annexation will not go down well. Animosity will result. This will be coupled with domestic turmoil as anti-Trump states assert themselves. Tariffs will cause inflation and breed discontent. There is a danger of serious economic collapse. Canada will seek new trading partners and alliances. America will become isolated from its neighbors and its traditional allies—Britain will lose its love affair with America. It will become a pariah state, disliked by the civilized world. It will become a pariah state to most of its own population. Trump and Vance will become hated figures (they already are). The complicity of the Republican party will be viewed with complete contempt all over the world. Meanwhile the Democrats will provide no real alternative, unable to get beyond pronouns, trans rights, obsession with sexual harassment, abortion, DEI disputes.

Let me try to say something about the mental state of the world under the new dispensation. Fear, anger, disgust, despair, hatred—all of the above. The nausea generated by the spectacle in the Oval Office will not be soon forgotten or forgiven. Trump and Vance played the role of the ugly American perfectly. The nastiness and brutality of their behavior is now imprinted on the world’s psyche. Attempts to excuse it only worsen the impression created. Real despair about the future is written on the faces of intelligent commentators, here and abroad. This will only get worse. I shudder to imagine the next stage in the Ukraine war. The Cold War has ended only to be replaced by depression, disgust, and a feeling of hopelessness.

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Mental Ontology

Mental Ontology

A certain way of conceiving mental ontology has become entrenched: there are mental tokens and mental types, and token identity does not entail type identity. In other terminology, there are mental particulars and mental properties, and the former may be identical with physical particulars in the brain without there being an identity of mental and physical properties. These entities are generally thought to be events—hence event tokens (particulars) and event types (properties). According to the token identity theory, mental event tokens are identical with physical event tokens, but mental event types are not identical with physical event types. Logically, it’s like saying that all colored objects are identical with shaped objects, but colors are not identical to shapes. That proposition is obviously true and provides a model for the mind in relation to the brain. But how good is the analogy?  Does it make sense of the thesis of token identity? Clearly, that thesis requires that mental events (particulars) can have multiple non-identical properties: a single event can be both a pain and a C-fiber firing, where these two properties are not identical (like red and square). Is that true of events in general? Not according to one plausible account of the metaphysics of events—the property exemplification account. I won’t go into the details of this but merely note that it does not allow for the kind of token identity theory commonly proposed. In short: no single event can have multiple intrinsic non-relational properties, because an event is an exemplification of a specific property.[1] Thus, if the property of pain is not identical to the property of C-fiber firing, then a particular event of pain cannot be the same event as a particular event of C-fiber firing. That is intuitively correct: events are occurrences or instances of a single (non-relational) property at a given time and place. Type distinctness therefore implies token distinctness. There cannot be a token identity theory without a corresponding type identity theory. The relationship between a particular mental event and a particular physical event cannot be identity if the instantiated properties are distinct. What then is it? We can call it by several names—dependence, realization, supervenience, implementation, constitution. The idea is that a mental event occurs in virtue of a numerically distinct but correlated physical event in the brain; it is because of that event that the mental event happens. So, the correct formulation of the intended physicalist claim is that every mental event occurs in virtue of a correlated physical event—though not necessarily of the same physical type (it could be D-fibers not C-fibers). This is not an identity theory but it is a version of a token physicalist theory (there are no mental events that lack such a physical correlate, as in disembodied minds). We can dispense with the ontology of multiply exemplifying token events and replace it with an ontology of singly exemplifying token events plus a relation of correlation (dependence, realization, etc.). This degree of dualism is mild and anodyne, nothing like the full Cartesian Monty (there are no “naked” mental events).

Is that the end of the story? Unfortunately, no: for the question is immediately raised as to what explains the correlation. The names for the relation are really just names of a mystery. That is the mind-body problem: how and why are the mental and physical properties related as they are? Is the mental property reducible to the physical property on which it evidently depends? If not, what is this relation of emergence, generation, creation, or what have you? If we knew that, we would have solved the mind-body problem to all intents and purposes. Let’s consider a well-worn analogy—the ethical and the descriptive. There are ethical events—events of generosity or cruelty, say. They are clearly related to physical events—bodies moving etc. How is this possible, given that the ethical and the physical are such different domains (discourses, facts)? It’s because ethical events are actions, i.e., movements of bodies. It is in virtue of these movements that events can be ethical or unethical. Ethical events are the kind of thing that can be intelligibly related to the body, because they are bodily actions in their very nature. But what can we say about mental events that renders them intelligibly related to the body and brain? We clearly cannot say that they are bodily actions: the “token identity” (physical realization) is not grounded in the very nature of mental events as movements of the body. So, the physical correlate in the brain does not follow from the mental event as such; it isn’t simply the basis of the bodily action that a mental event manifestly consists in. Mental events are not bodily movements. Therefore, we cannot explain their dependence on the brain by invoking their manifest nature; it’s like trying to explain red by square—as if being red were a type of shape. Clearly, ethical types are not identical to physical types (ethics can’t be reduced to physics), but we can easily understand how ethical tokens are related to physical tokens—since they are bodily acts. But in the case of mental tokens, we can’t even do that: the mental ontology fails to mesh with the physical ontology, so even token physicalism is a mystery. Doing wrong is performing a physical action, but feeling pain is not a physical action (as it might be, writhing); so, we have no bridge to the body and brain. Token physicalism might be true (I think it is), but it is not intelligible—transparent, evident, self-explanatory. It is brute, opaque, and baffling. Thus, mental ontology is not conducive even to very weak forms of physicalism—that is, as an intelligible, explicable theory. Mental tokens are not intelligibly linked to the brain states that must underlie them. We have what might be called unintelligible physicalism.

And there is a deeper problem: it is not even clear that the ontology of types and tokens, properties and particulars, applies to the mental realm. Sure, we have analogies, hopeful parallels; but are they accurate models of what is really going on with the mind? Is a mental event even an event (is a belief a state)? We explain the customary ontology by comparing the mental “thing” to something with which we are already familiar–types and tokens of letters of the alphabet, or objects with color and shape. But does the mind really conform to those models? All we can say is that things happen in the mind and these things can be similar or dissimilar to other things that happen in the mind; but that falls short of discerning a genuine shared ontological structure with letters of the alphabet and colored objects. We have analogies without insight. We try to force the mind into preconceived categories; we don’t observe it to merit these categories. Neural complexes exemplify mental properties, we say—but what does that mean? (Ryle would say it’s a category mistake.) Is it like a soldier exemplifying bravery or a flower exemplifying beauty? We can talk the talk, but can we think the thought? What are we thinking exactly? I think we are thinking it’s kinda like those other things but also kinda different. Wittgenstein would say we are in a muddle; I say we are in a puddle—a murky medium in which clear vision is impossible. I am a mysterian about token identity (let alone type identity), or about the dependence relation between token mental events and token physical events (if we drop talk of token identity). Mental ontology is an obscure business, even at the level of abstract structure. We inherited the particular-universal distinction from Plato and it works well for ordinary perceptible objects, but even Plato did not (to my knowledge) generalize it to the soul (consciousness, thought); he didn’t suppose that the mind is populated by particulars and universals, objects and properties, tokens and types. That is surely an imposition from outside not a matter of casual observation. We regiment (in Quine’s sense) our thought about the mind according to these traditional categories, but it is not at all clear that such regimentation is not a form of deformation (or even defamation). We might be ontologically blinkered, or blind. The mind is rooted in the brain, no doubt, but all the talk of tokens and types, particulars and universals, objects and properties, looks like so much wishful thinking, analogies masquerading as analyses.[2]

[1] Old hands will know that this is the debate between D. Davidson and J. Kim.

[2] The role of space in fixing our notions of particulars and universals is often remarked, but it is a stretch to carry it over to the mental realm. The problem is that without it our thought becomes clouded, shapeless. The “language game” of the mind is not a species of space-dependent discourse denoting spatially individuated particulars. Some have thought it is not denoting at all–hence mental expressivism and the like. The mind and the body don’t have the same ontological logic, if I may put it so. At any rate, we have trouble applying that logic.

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Trump Psychology

Trump Psychology

Recent events support the following conjecture: the whole thing arises from the fact that Trump thinks (correctly) that European leaders dislike and despise him, while be believes, falsely, that the dictators of the world like and admire him. He also envies Zelensky’s ability to draw standing ovations. The only reason he stays in NATO is that if he leaves, he won’t be able to exert power over and punish those leaders. He would instantly hook up with Putin and Kim (and other tyrants) if they declared him their idol. Then they could manipulate him at will. We may therefore expect these outcomes to happen. It is the same pattern we observe in domestic politics. He will not lose support at home if this prediction is correct.

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Mind, Brain, and Time

Brain, Mind, and Time

Thoughts (and other mental events) occur in time and take time. Transitions between thoughts, as in logical reasoning, are temporally extended processes. Some people think more quickly than others. There is such a thing as the speed of thought, in principle measurable. Mental velocity is real. The brain also operates in time and has a speed. The speed of a nerve impulse (“conduction velocity”) is estimated as 275 mph (120 meters per second) at the high end and a few miles an hour at the low end (it depends on axon diameter and myelination). Given the dependence of the mind on the brain, then, thought speed cannot exceed brain speed, even though it may feel instantaneous. If the mind were not thus dependent, this would not necessarily be so—the mind might be able to go faster than the brain. As it is, however, the speed of the brain constrains and controls the speed of the mind. The machinery of thinking is housed in the brain and it operates according to strict rules. The nerve impulse is much slower than electricity, though faster than the flow of blood, which allows thought to proceed at a fair lick; but it cannot break free of the physical dynamics of the brain. The brain sets an upper limit on mental velocity.

We can infer from this that mental time is the same as physical time: the velocity of thought formation is identical the velocity of neural transmission, roughly speaking. I don’t mean it can’t be slower; I mean that there is no separate time in which mental events occur. In fact, the time between two successive thoughts is the same as the time between their neural correlates. Mental velocity is derivative from physical velocity, a special case of it. Thus, a modest physicalism is true of the speed of thought; it is the speed of the corresponding neural transition, neither more nor less. It is not something separate from, and over and above, brain speed. As brain scientists say, they have the same latencies. Mental velocity is supervenient on physical velocity precisely because it is physical velocity. If the mental machinery were made of something else, the speed of thought could be different, either slower or faster (AI could be much faster). If you ask what is the speed of thought as such, you get no answer; it has no intrinsic natural speed—it all depends on the nature of the relevant brain machinery. If the brain were made of light, its thoughts might reach the speed of light; if it were made of a liquid like blood or molasses, it might be as slow as walking speed. The speed of thought is essentially a physical thing.

Normally, if two entities are separate and distinct, the speed of one does not depend on the speed of the other—for example, two cars moving down the highway. If the things are identical, however, then their speed must be the same (by Leibniz’s law). Clark Kent can fly as fast as Superman; water boils at the same rate as H2O. If the things are joined in some way, glued together, they will move at the same speed, but if disconnected they will be able to move at different speeds. The mind cannot move at a different speed from its associated brain, so there is really only one explanation of its tracking of brain dynamics—it must be the correlated brain state. Why do the two march exactly in step? Because one is the other; the mind isn’t a separable entity capable of moving at a different velocity from its physical basis. In other words, your thoughts are in your brain—that’s why the two proceed through time at the same rate. They may have properties over and above regular brain properties, but they are literally parts or constituents of your brain, as neurons are. We might have concluded this on independent grounds, but the consideration of mental velocity has provided us with another reason for taking this view. The best explanation of temporal coincidence is spatial coincidence—as with the Superman and water cases. This tells us nothing about subjective properties of mental states, but it does tell us that those states are identical to states of the brain described in neural terms. The thought in time is none other than its neural correlate also in time. Mental events are physical events because their succession in time is identical to the succession in time of their brain correlates. They can’t proceed in time independently of the brain, and this must be because they are parts of the brain. A dualist view would imply that the two temporal sequences could come apart, but they can’t and don’t. The mind is tied tightly to the brain in its dynamic aspect, even if it might have other aspects that are not so tied.[1]

[1] It might be said that we have a proof of token identity but not type identity, and this wouldn’t be wide of the mark. The proof proceeds from premises concerning the speed of thought (not, say, from premises about causation and laws, a la Davidson). Mental events must be physical events because of their temporal indiscernibility.

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Is America a Cult?

Is America a Cult?

America has been home to a great many cults, large and small, more so than other countries. It seems prone to them—receptive, welcoming. It is generally a religious country and cults are religious in nature (though not necessarily supernatural-theist). Currently, we have the cult of Trump; before that we had the cult of Reagan. The Democrats have JFK and his family. Then there is the cult of the “Founding Fathers” (I put it in quotes because the ritual use of “Fathers” is a dead giveaway—these are quasi-mythical figures in the American imagination). We also have sundry movie stars (“Hollywood royalty”)—glittering symbols of otherworldly transcendence (smiling, waving). Pop stars too—Bob Dylan is surely a cult to many of his fans (I won’t mention lesser figures). Cults are everywhere, if you care to look. Is it because there is no monarchy in America, so that people look for monarch substitutes? The monarchy in Great Britain is surely a cult, sucking up most of the cult oxygen. Strong passions, hero worship, hysteria, loyalty tests, intolerance, anti-intellectualism—these are all marks of the cultish. Silencing skeptics is the general modus operandi: expulsions, suppressions, even violence. Lockstep thinking and imperviousness to facts are the dominant symptoms. The cult is controlling, paranoid, conformist, brainwashed, myopic, closed-minded, wacky, and weird. Insiders don’t see this, but to outsiders it is only too apparent. Talking gibberish is the sure sign of it.

You may be nodding in assent to my description of the culture of American cults, but I want to make a more controversial point, namely that America itself is a cult. The typical American sees his country as a shining city on a hill, a kind of utopia, exceptional, blessed, superior. It has its mythic history and moments of high glory. Patriotism runs high. Blemishes are overlooked or downplayed. This is why the teaching of history is so contentious—it threatens to undermine the sunny cult of America. How is slavery consistent with the American cult? It isn’t, so it must be denied or minimized. There is also a tendency to want to return to a supposed glorious past, because the present clearly doesn’t live up to the self-image manufactured by the cult. There are traitors to the cult and they must be eliminated so that we can return to the golden days. The dominant religion of America is America. It is one great church. That’s why its version of Christianity is so Americanized. The American continent is home to a giant cult (as well as a few annoying dissenters)—the cult of itself. Scientology does well here because it reflects the ambient mood; it is one offshoot of the American cult. Am I not stating the obvious?

Is American philosophy (the profession) a cult? Members would strongly deny any such imputation, but I am not so sure. After all, it exists within a larger cult, and is full of Americans. Are these people too prone to the cultish? Have there been cult-like collectives surrounding particular philosophers? The idea is not outlandish: wasn’t there once a Quine cult, then a Rawls cult, and now a David Lewis cult? Each proposed all-encompassing intellectual utopias ruled by a single dominant idea: the existential quantifier, the original position, the possible world. These are the keys to the magic kingdom, available to any true believer. Thus, we get the card-carrying Quinean, the Rawlsian, the Lewisian. (Davidson and Kripke also enjoyed a cult-like status, though not as pronounced as the three individuals mentioned.) But in addition to this we find a tendency towards ideological conformity, punishment of dissenters, expulsions, shrill condemnation, willful ignorance, fact denial. American philosophers simply recapitulate the vices of the cult-loving society in which they live. They may not constitute a full-blown cult, but they approximate to that status. Feminism, in particular, has taken on a cult-like character in American academia, including in philosophy. No doubt about it, America loves its cults.[1]

[1] I once proposed, in a spirit of fun, a cult of the hand, thinking that the parody would be obvious. Lo and behold, some twits believed it was serious! Cults are so pervasive that people are apt to see them where they don’t exist.

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