Consequences
Consequences
Is it too much of an exaggeration to say that last Friday’s berating and insulting of the prime minister of Ukraine by the president and vice-president of the United States marked the end of the Cold War? The USA and Russia are no longer at loggerheads, no longer foes, but rather in harmony with respect to global affairs. This is not because Russia has changed—we have. I want to trace out the likely consequences of this new alignment, this ideological chumminess. First, Cuba (near where I live): what is to stop Russia from invading that island, taking it over, installing troops there? Nothing, as far as I can see. Would the US government take a firm stand against this? Apparently not. They would recommend a “deal” between Cuba and Russia, i.e., territorial concessions. Cuba could become a Russian outpost, with Russian the official language. In the case of Europe, we already see a fundamental restructuring, as European states seek to develop independence from American protection. They can no longer rely on American deterrence of Russian (or other) aggression—they will need to militarize. The issue of nuclear arms will come to the forefront. No longer will America’s nuclear capability prevent the Russian deployment of nuclear weapons. NATO has been decimated and is likely to have to survive without American membership. It is not clear in the short term whether Europe alone can deter Russian depredations. The end of the Cold War might well be the beginning of a Hot War in Europe. If Putin had waited a few years before invading Ukraine, he would have encountered little to no resistance from the American government under Trump; Ukraine would already be a Russian satellite. Without the transatlantic alliance to fall back on the European states are vulnerable to Russian expansionism. At the least there will be political tension, saber-rattling, incursions of one kind or another. Think of Chechnya. Further afield, Taiwan: it’s hard to believe that China will not be emboldened to make a move on Taiwan. Do you think Trump would do much about that? America first, remember. Will North Korea continue its nuclear build-up? You bet.
It is fairly obvious that this loss of traditional alliances will be accompanied by new alliances. America-Russia-North Korea: ARNK. It’s already happening. America will become more of a dictatorship, so naturally aligned with other dictatorships. The rift with Canada will deepen: a trade war is still a war. Talk of annexation will not go down well. Animosity will result. This will be coupled with domestic turmoil as anti-Trump states assert themselves. Tariffs will cause inflation and breed discontent. There is a danger of serious economic collapse. Canada will seek new trading partners and alliances. America will become isolated from its neighbors and its traditional allies—Britain will lose its love affair with America. It will become a pariah state, disliked by the civilized world. It will become a pariah state to most of its own population. Trump and Vance will become hated figures (they already are). The complicity of the Republican party will be viewed with complete contempt all over the world. Meanwhile the Democrats will provide no real alternative, unable to get beyond pronouns, trans rights, obsession with sexual harassment, abortion, DEI disputes.
Let me try to say something about the mental state of the world under the new dispensation. Fear, anger, disgust, despair, hatred—all of the above. The nausea generated by the spectacle in the Oval Office will not be soon forgotten or forgiven. Trump and Vance played the role of the ugly American perfectly. The nastiness and brutality of their behavior is now imprinted on the world’s psyche. Attempts to excuse it only worsen the impression created. Real despair about the future is written on the faces of intelligent commentators, here and abroad. This will only get worse. I shudder to imagine the next stage in the Ukraine war. The Cold War has ended only to be replaced by depression, disgust, and a feeling of hopelessness.
Still as his grip tightens his policies are failing pretty pungently if not spectacularly. Nothing can stop him now? The WSJ editorial page is turning on him. Were he impeacehed and removed (admittedly unlikely at this stage) he’d just stay in power as King Trump? Like the machinery of night, to misquote Ginsberg. Resistance is futile.
His grip will be so tight that even if life in America becomes like Russia or the USSR the Trump cult will follow the man off a cliff? Is that what you assert?
It would take something extreme to make the MAGA crowd turn on Trump.
Yes, it’s fascinating he’s making America into a failed state, yet the MAGA heads love him. Do all cult leaders exert such powerful charisma? Is it because as you say America is a cult to begin with and Trump the flag?
I know people who fell for Trump and I get it but to explain it rationally, I mean how literally should we take the metaphor of a Trump ‘cult’? If we hired a cult specialist to fly down a checklist of properties of a cult, would MAGA fit? Could we do a Harvard Business Review kind of study on MAGA and Trump? Was and is Trump very and quite deliberate about the cult thing like some televangelist or is it just natural, he being intellectually a troglodyte?
All of the above plus an element of mystery. Why was he a celebrity to begin with?
Now I bring up Orwell and Wittgenstein: Orwell said it was a constant struggle to see what’s under our nose and Wittgenstein said to take off the glasses and just look. Almost all the pundits are outraged and shocked because things aren’t happening the way they were taught or the way they ought just proving how little they really understand. And much of the public too. The opinion writer in the Times is pretty sharp and clear eyed, He wrote a piece today in the Times “Trump is the Real Thing.” Philosophy says the truth is always there under your nose, or at least some of it and you just have to look and think and see.. Maybe I’m exaggerating and maybe this wisdom applies more to human things. I’d take Socrates or Shakespeare over Jesus and all the religious nuts any day. But I digress. We have to deal with this Trump loser somehow.
Yet my sense is that some “elites” are using Trump/ They don’t matter anymore now that he is President again. He used them more than they used him.
I doubt that Wittgenstein said to take off the glasses and just look. Glasses help one see, after all. You may be thinking of his statement, “don’t think, but look” (and you’ll see that games have no common element) in P.I. 66.
Correct correction.