Convergence, Truth, and History
We tend to converge on the truth. Independent investigators often arrive at the same truth because it is the truth. If investigators are not independent, their coinciding beliefs may well be explained by influence not truth: they have the same beliefs because of interpersonal contact. Convergence of belief in independent investigators is apt to be a sign of truth because otherwise it would be a coincidence. The probability of truth rises with the number of independent investigators agreeing in their beliefs. Not so with dependent investigators: influence can easily explain agreement. There is agreement by way of objective truth and agreement by way of personal influence. If only one person arrives at a given belief, that doesn’t bode well for truth, no matter how much influence he or she may have. Belief by influence is no guarantee of truth; belief under conditions of independence is an indicator of truth—not infallible, but highly suggestive. Convergence goes with fact; lack of convergence goes with fiction, even if there is agreement by influence. This is the difference between a cult and a learned society—whether there is agreement under conditions of independence.
There is an analogue in evolutionary biology: convergent evolution versus inheritance. Some traits evolve multiple times quite independently; there is no inheritance relation between the animals sharing the trait—for example, locomotion and vision. Other traits evolve just once and are then passed on; these tend not to be so widespread—eye color, nose shape. Convergent traits tend to be good traits to have—that’s why they evolve separately. Inherited traits may or may not be good—sometimes they just hang around because they come with the territory. Convergent evolution is a sign of adaptive quality: eyesight would not evolve multiple times if it were not useful, indeed essential. A trait is objectively beneficial or it is not—but if not, it could still be widespread because of inheritance. Eyes are good things to have, but vestigial hairy skin may not be.
This distinction applies to the history of human thought: we have people independently discovering the same thing and people agreeing by virtue of influence. When people come to the same view independently, we tend to suppose that the view in question is likely to be true; when they do so by influence, we think this is less likely (though possible). If millions of people independently arrive at the opinion that the Eiffel tower is tall, we think this is because it is tall; but if the members of a religious cult all have the same opinion, under conditions of influence, we don’t jump to the conclusion that it must be true. This is obvious and uncontroversial. But if we apply it to the actual history of human thought, we notice some interesting facts. On the one hand, there are many instances of convergence: in physics, astronomy, chemistry, biology, and even philosophy. I won’t rehearse all of this, except to remind you of Descartes, Galileo, and Newton in physics and Darwin and Wallace in biology. The same truths were independently discovered, thus adding credence to these discoveries; it wasn’t just a solitary individual who magically hit upon the truth by unrepeatable genius. In philosophy Russell and Moore converged in their opposition to Hegel, as Russell and Frege converged in their logicism. But in certain cases, this was not so—we had the phenomenon of the solitary genius who exercised massive influence. No one else had the same ideas, such was their singular genius—though they had their followers, disciples, and acolytes. Three such thinkers stand out in recent times: Freud, Einstein, and Wittgenstein. Singlehandedly, they revolutionized their subject—they alone arrived at the truth about their respective domains of interest (allegedly: see below). No one else came close: there was no Wallace lurking in the wings. Hence, they are regarded as true geniuses, as less gifted thinkers are not (including Russell and Frege). There was no convergence only influence: many people accepted their theories, though no one else came up with them independently. In this they exceeded their intellectual predecessors, such as those listed above. They saw farther than any other man. But shouldn’t this make us suspicious? How come only they had the brain power to make the discoveries they made? Other people came to accept their theories, but no one else anticipated them, came up with them on their own. Hmmm. What made them stand apart from the rest of the human race? How come the truth spoke only to them? Plenty of other people had their level of intelligence and yet did not happen upon the truths they revealed. That is what we have been encouraged to believe—the story of the lone but influential genius.
The trouble is that their theories (two of them anyway) are now discredited, to one degree or another. Here I have to put my cards on the table: I don’t think any of them spoke the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. That’s why there was no independent convergence. If they were onto the truth, someone else wouldhave been too; but no one else was, so they were not onto the truth. They may have been onto some truths, but the main body of their work was not true. This is why there is something cultlike about their following: it relies on influence not independent discovery. I think that Freudian psychoanalysis is mainly false or highly dubious, as do many others; the same is true of Wittgenstein’s Tractatus and Investigations; and many have been skeptical of Einstein’s special and general theories of relativity. My aim here is not to defend these opinions (controversial as they are), but merely to point out that the theories in question do not have the support provided by convergent discovery. It isn’t as if other people quite independently came to the same conclusions, which you might expect if those conclusions were true; rather, they were propounded by one man and gained traction and influence. It is notable that they are not easy to grasp (unlike the theory of evolution by natural selection): they feel obscure and arcane, rather startling, contrary to common sense. You are expected to take them on trust, though bits of evidence are dutifully provided. They are creeds, dogmas, pronouncements. Thus, a cult surrounds their progenitors—they are seen as sacred figures. Their images appear on T shirts. We can’t hope to understand them in their full profundity. Wittgenstein, indeed, inspired twocultlike followings. I could say much the same about certain proponents of quantum theory residing in Copenhagen, as well as certain philosophers. Did anyone else ever come up with Quine’s distinctive doctrines, or David Lewis’s? No, they were singular figures: the indeterminacy of translation, possible worlds realism. Both doctrines elicited “incredulous stares” (as Lewis famously remarked)–that is, no one else thought one day, “You know, meaning is a myth” or “Actually, actuality is no more real than non-actuality”. We don’t find independent thinkers happily converging on these startling conclusions; indeed, Quine and Lewis were virtually alone in confidently propounding them. Nor did colleagues say to themselves, upon hearing these doctrines, “Good heavens, he’s right, I see it now!”. It wasn’t like Darwin, Wallace, and their scientific followers (Huxley, Haldane). In these cases, we don’t have the comfort of convergence; instead, we have an instance of influence emanating from a single source.
We can ask our question about other areas of human life: ethics, politics, art, music, clothes, religion, literature. When do we have convergence and when do we have influence? Is utilitarianism something that ethicists independently converge on or is it a matter of influence? I would say we have a good deal of convergence, combined with some degree of influence. Isn’t this something that people are likely to converge on, given its evident correctness (at least as a large part of morality)? Democracy in politics is the same—it’s obviously a pretty sound idea that any reflective person could come up with. Art and music are different: here there is no obvious truth for them to converge on—they are more a matter of free creation. The idea of the solitary artistic or musical genius is not merely a piece of airy romanticism (though influence also plays a role). Clothes are a mixed bag, being both practical and aesthetic: trousers, convergence; flared trousers, influence. Utility and fashion operate by different rules. Religions may converge from different places onto the same core ideas—a divine being or beings, priests, collective worship—but they may also propagate by causal influence. The former are more likely to be solidly based than the latter, being more reflective of general human nature. In the case of literature, influence will dominate, but literary forms may be independently arrived at in virtue of their inherent properties (the novel form is clearly good for telling long involved stories). None of these cases will be simple and straightforward, and it may be difficult to discern what is what, but the distinction holds in these areas too. The more objective and universal something is the more likely it will be independently converged upon; the more limited and local the more subject to influence. Memes are more local than facts of nature. Independent convergence will be a sign of veracity or lasting value, though not an infallible sign.
The general drift of these reflections is to throw cold water on the idea of the solitary singular genius, especially in scientific pursuits, including philosophy. If something is true, it is going to be discovered by several individuals, as has frequently happened in the history of human thought. In cases in which someone is hailed as a solitary genius, singlehandedly producing a new idea, we should be on the lookout for error; people just don’t differ that greatly intellectually (Einstein’s IQ was not higher than that of other physicists). When an idea’s time is ripe, it is likely that several minds will latch onto it; if only one mind does, we are likely to be in the land of creative fiction. It may be genius, but it is not true genius.[1]
[1] One might formulate a law of discovery: All true ideas are independently discoverable. No truth is such that only this individual could discover it. If Freud were right, he would have rivals in discovery—in other parts of the world, on other planets. If Wittgenstein were right, there would be a twin Wittgenstein somewhere saying the same thing. If we are resistant to these possibilities, that can only be because we sense they were not right. Darwin is not essential to Darwinism, but Freud strikes us as essential to Freudianism; and Wittgenstein to the doctrines of the Tractatus and Investigations—as no one but James Joyce could have written Ulysses. Berkeley is an interesting case: why does he have no co-discoverers? Would someone else have come up with the same ideas eventually? Is his work really a work of fiction? It does seem like an inherently singular vision. Could anyone else have arrived at the achievements of Shakespeare? By contrast, scientific truth always admits of independent discovery by a plurality of individuals. If Einstein had never lived, would someone else have come up with his theories? I rather doubt it.